Market Watch - The Stage is Set For an Accelerating Market Recovery in 2025

As we approach the end of 2024, We have noticed an improvement in housing market conditions. Many home buyers patiently waited on the sidelines for reduced inflation and lower borrowing costs. With selling prices remaining well off their historic peak and monthly mortgage payments trending lower, the stage is set for an accelerating market recovery in 2025.

Ontario - The Stage is Set For an Accelerating Market Recovery in 2025

Toronto, December 9, 2024 -- Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales increased strongly on a yearover-year basis in November 2024. Many buyers benefitted from more affordable market conditions brought about by lower borrowing costs. New listings were also up compared to November 2023 but at a much lesser annual rate. This meant that market conditions tightened, resulting in overall average price growth compared to last year.

“As we approach the end of 2024, I am pleased to report an improvement in housing market conditions. Many home buyers patiently waited on the sidelines for reduced inflation and lower borrowing costs. With selling prices remaining well off their historical peak and monthly mortgage payments trending lower, the stage is set for an accelerating market recovery in 2025,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Jennifer Pearce.

GTA REALTORS® reported 5,875 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in November 2024 – up by 40.1% compared to 4,194 sales reported in November 2023. New listings entered into the MLS® System amounted to 11,592 – up by 6.6% year-over-year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, November sales were up month-over-month compared to October.

Ottawa’s MLS® Market Making Headway

Ottawa, December 9, 2024 -- The number of homes sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) totaled 1,059 units in November 2024 — a slight dip down from the 1,179 units sold the month previous. 

Home sales were 3.1% below the five-year average and 0.5% below the 10-year average for the month of November. 

On a year-to-date basis, home sales totaled 12,882 units in November 2024 — an increase of 11.8% from the same period in 2023.  

“Ottawa’s market is making headway on a long road back from the slowdown experienced in 2023,” says OREB Past-President Curtis Fillier. “Buyers have been slow to come back to the market while watching the interest rates lower, and some are waiting to see how new mortgage rules — the extended amortization period and the increased default insurance cap — coming into effect in December may redefine their purchasing power. Sellers have noticed that caution and those who can are likely holding on for a more active spring.” 

“There will be the typical slowdown at this time of the year as people’s attentions turn to the holidays, and the snow starts to cover a property’s selling features,” says Fillier. “With prices holding steady and open houses getting traffic, though, people are keeping a close eye on opportunities.”  

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends far more accurately than is possible using average or median price measures. 

The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $636,700 in November 2024, an increase of 1.5% from November 2023.

The benchmark price for single-family homes was $722,400, up 2.1% on a year-over-year basis in November.

By comparison, the benchmark price for a townhouse/row unit was $491,500, up 0.3% compared to a year earlier.

The benchmark apartment price was $406,200, down 3.7% from last year.

The average price of homes sold in November 2024 was $667,098 increasing 4.6% from November 2023.

The more comprehensive year-to-date average price was $679,797, increasing by 1.2% from November 2023.

The dollar volume of all home sales in November 2024 was $706.4 million, up 51.8% from November 2023.

OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Prices will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.  

The number of new listings saw a decrease of 7.3% from November 2023. There were 1,352 new residential listings in November 2024. New listings were 6.3% below the five-year average and 0.3% above the 10-year average for the month of November.

Active residential listings numbered 4,036 units on the market at the end of November 2024, a gain of 38.2% from November 2023. Active listings were 72.8% above the five-year average and 44.3% above the 10-year average for the month of November.

Months of inventory numbered 3.8 at the end of November 2024, compared to 4.0 in November 2023. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

British Columbia - Home Buyer Demand Continues to Strengthen in November

Vancouver, December 12, 2024. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 5,841 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems in November 2024, up 25.7% from November 2023. The average MLS® residential price in BC in November 2024 was up 1.7% at $979,221 compared to an average price of $963,143 in November 2023.

The total sales dollar volume was $5.7 billion, a 27.8% increase from the same time the previous year. BC MLS® unit sales were 12% lower than the ten-year average for November.

“Home sales across the province continued the normalizing trend that began in October,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “The surge in activity this fall sets up 2025 for a much stronger start than we’ve seen in the last two years.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume is up 1.6% to $68.6 billion, compared with the same period in 2023. Residential unit sales are up 0.8% year-over-year at 69,983 units, while the average MLS® residential price is also up 0.8% to $980,055.

Alberta - Supply On The Rise, But Not Across All Price Ranges

Calgary, December 2, 2024 – As we transition into winter, Calgary's housing market is following typical seasonal trends, with activity slowing compared to the fall. However, year-over-year demand remains relatively strong. In November, increased sales in detached, semi-detached, and row homes offset a decline in apartment condominium sales. The 1,797 sales for November mirrored last year’s levels and remained 20% above long-term trends for the month.

The significant shift lies in supply. Inventory levels rose to 4,352 units in November, a notable increase from the 3,000 units reported last year. Despite the recent gains, inventory levels remain below long-term trends for the month.

“Housing supply has been a challenge over the past several years due to the sudden rise in population,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Rising new home construction has bolstered supply in rental, new home and resales ownership markets. However, supply improvements vary significantly by location, price range, and property type.”

The months of supply have increased to over two months, representing a shift away from the extremely low levels seen earlier this year and in the past three Novembers, which reported under two months of supply. While these more balanced conditions are promising for potential buyers, many market segments still favour sellers.

Improved supply options have tempered the pace of price growth. Year-over-year gains range from nearly 7% for row homes to 9% for apartment-style units. The total residential benchmark price reached $587,900, reflecting a year-over-year increase of just under 4%. This slower growth reflects a shift toward more affordable row and apartment-style units. Seasonally adjusted prices have remained stable over the past four months despite unadjusted prices trending down in line with seasonal patterns.

November 2024 Housing Stats

Detached - Rising sales for homes above $600,000 offset the declines in the lower price ranges caused by limited supply choice. While inventory levels did improve, 85% of the supply was priced above $600,000.  Improving supply caused the months of supply to push above two months in November, with higher months of supply reported for homes priced above $700,000 and less than two months of supply for homes priced below that level. This variation within the market is likely to result in different price pressures.

The unadjusted detached benchmark price was $750,100, slightly lower than last month but over 7% higher than prices reported last year at this time. Year-over-year gains have ranged across the city, with slower growth reported in areas with the most competition from newer homes.   

Semi-Detached - There were 173 sales in November, an improvement over last year and contributing to the year-to-date growth of nearly 5%. This was possible thanks to gains in new listings and higher supply levels. With two months of supply, conditions are not as tight as earlier in the year but still favour the seller, especially for properties priced below $700,000.

As of November, the unadjusted benchmark price was $675,100, nearly 8% higher than last November. The pace of price growth has eased over the past several months, primarily due to seasonal factors. Benchmark prices ranged from $926,800 in the City Centre district to $409,300 in the East district of the city. 

Row - Row home sales improved in November compared to last year, contributing to nearly 3% of year-to-date gains. Sales have remained exceptionally strong over the past three years as purchasers seek more affordable options. At the same time, new listings have also improved relative to sales, supporting year-over-year gains in inventory levels. Despite inventory improvements, conditions remained relatively tight with nearly two months of supply. 

Following steep gains earlier in the year, the pace of price growth has eased. As of November, the unadjusted benchmark price was $454,200, nearly seven% higher than last year. Year-to-date average benchmark prices have improved by nearly 15%. Row prices in the City Centre were the highest at $620,000, while the North East and East districts were the only areas to report benchmark prices below $400,000.

Apartment Condominium - Sales in November slowed over last year's record high. However, the 429 sales were still 47% higher than long-term trends. New listings for apartment-style units have been on the rise. With 1,482 units available in November, more supply is available now than during the spring, and it is the only sector to see levels rise above long-term trends for the month.

The additional supply caused the months of supply to push above three months and is taking some of the pressure off home prices. As of November, the unadjusted benchmark price was $337,800, down over last month, but still nine% higher than last year. Supply has improved for units priced above $200,000, but most gains have been in the $300,000 to $500,000 range.   

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie - With 344 units available, Supply in Airdrie is returning to levels more consistent with activity reported prior to 2020. Supply levels have improved across all property types, with detached and row-style properties accounting for 84% of the supply. While sales have remained strong relative to long-term trends, recent gains in new listings helped support improvements in supply levels.

Improved supply choice is taking some of the pressure off home prices. In November, the total residential benchmark price was $543,300, 4% higher than last November. Apartment-style properties reported the largest year-over-year change at nearly 16%. 

Cochrane - New listings in the town reached a record high for November. The rise in new listings was met with a surge in sales, as November sales were amongst the highest levels reported in November. Much of the growth in sales was driven by detached activity. Strong sales activity prevented a significant shift in inventory levels, which remain 18% below the month's long-term trends.

The pace of price growth has eased over the past few months, which is not uncommon for this time of year. As of November, the unadjusted benchmark price was $568,600, nearly 4% higher than levels reported last year at this time. While prices grew across all property types, the largest price gains were reported for apartment-style homes.

Okotoks - Unlike other centres, Okotoks reported a pullback in new listings to 47 units this month. At the same time, there were 52 sales, preventing any significant change to the low inventory situation in the area. Okotoks has struggled with supply since the end of 2020, keeping the months of supply low below two months throughout most of that time. 

In November, the unadjusted benchmark price was $624,000, 6% higher than last year's levels. Prices have improved across all property types, with the largest gains occurring for row-style properties. Detached prices have also been on the rise and, in November, pushed up to $707,300.