Market Watch - Prices Continue to Rise as Home Buyers Confidence Returns

We are seeing prices rising and sales rebounding this spring which tells us that home buyers are returning with confidence after a challenging year for our market. Even with mortgage rates roughly doubling, many buyers have come to terms with higher borrowing costs and are taking advantage of lower selling prices compared to this time last year.

The latest sales data show home prices have increased about 5% year-to-date, which already outpaces our forecast of one to 2% by year-end. The year is far from over, however, and it remains to be seen if these price increases will be sustained into 2024.

The issue moving forward will not be the demand for ownership housing, but rather the ability to meet this demand with adequate supply. This is a policy issue that requires a sustained effort from all levels of government.

Ontario - Resale Market Springs Back in Favour of Sellers

Toronto, 02 May 2023 -- The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued to tighten in April 2023. On a year-over-year basis, sales edged lower compared to April 2022, but new listings were down by more than one-third. Fewer listings relative to sales meant there was more competition between buyers, supporting an improvement in selling prices since the beginning of this year.

“In line with TRREB’s outlook and recent consumer polling results, we are seeing a gradual improvement in sales and average selling price. Many buyers have come to terms with higher borrowing costs and are taking advantage of lower selling prices compared to this time last year. The issue moving forward will not be the demand for ownership housing, but rather the ability to meet this demand with adequate supply. This is a policy issue that requires a sustained effort from all levels of government,” said TRREB President Paul Baron.

GTA REALTORS® reported 7,531 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in April 2023 – down by 5.2% compared to April 2022. In comparison to March 2023, sales increased on an actual and seasonally adjusted basis. On a year-over-year basis, new listings were down by 38.3% in April 2023.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was down by 12.1% year-over-year in April 2023. Compared to March, the benchmark price was up on an actual and seasonally adjusted basis. The average selling price in the GTA was $1,153,269 in April 2023 – down 7.8% compared to $1,250,704 in April 2022. The average selling price also increased compared to March, both on an actual and seasonally adjusted basis.

“As demand for ownership housing has picked up relative to supply, we are seeing renewed upward pressure on home prices. For a short period of time, higher borrowing costs trumped the impact of the constrained housing supply in the GTA. Renewed competition between buyers is once again shining the spotlight on the persistent lack of listings and resulting impact on affordability,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“Lack of affordability in the GTA ownership and rental housing markets has been well-documented. On top of this, households faced with steep price increases for basic goods and services have had to make tough decisions to adapt. It is time for governments to make tough choices as well. On average, every dollar a household makes in the first half of the year goes to taxes. Governments need to provide more value for every tax dollar they collect and should be looking for ways to reduce tax burdens moving forward,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

Ottawa -Resale Market Springs Back in Favour of Sellers

Ottawa, May 3, 2023 -- Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) sold 1,488 residential properties in April through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) System, compared with 1,876 in April 2022, a decrease of 21%. April’s sales included 1,156 in the freehold-property class, down 18% from a year ago, and 332 in the condominium-property category, a decrease of 29% from April 2022. The five-year average for total unit sales in April is 1,739.

“Ottawa’s resale market is on a steady upward trajectory, narrowing the comparison gap to peak pandemic activity in 2022. However, with new listings not keeping pace, the available housing stock is declining, and with less than two months of inventory — we’re back into seller’s market territory,” says Ottawa Real Estate Board President Ken Dekker.

Average prices have increased by 13.9% in four months since the market low in December 2022.

The average sale price for a freehold-class property in April was $747,123, a decrease of 10% from 2022. However, it marks a 5% increase over March 2023.

The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $435,875, decreasing 8% from a year ago, but still a 4% gain over March 2023.

With year-to-date average sale prices at $718,633 for freeholds and $421,722 for condos, these values represent a 13% decrease over 2022 for freehold-class properties and a 10% decrease for condominium-class properties.

“Upward pressure on sales prices continues with average prices increasing for the fourth month since the market low in December. Additionally, multiple offer situations have returned to certain neighbourhoods and overall days on the market are maintaining their downward trend. There continues to be low inventory in certain property classes and new product is coming to the market at a slower rate, which is affecting supply.”

 April’s new listings (2,144) were 25% lower than April 2022 (2,843) and up 3% from March 2023 (2,089). The 5-year average for new listings in April is 2,575.

Months of Inventory for the freehold-class properties has increased to 1.9 months from 0.9 months in April 2022 but down from 2.3 months in March.

Months of Inventory for condominium-class properties has increased to 1.9 months from 0.8 months in April 2022, although down from 2.1 months in March.

Days on market (DOM) for freeholds decreased from 34 to 27 days and 39 to 33 days for condos compared to last month.

“These numbers are static, snapshots in time. REALTORS® can give buyers and sellers a fulsome day-to-day picture of how the market is shifting and heating up this season. They have their fingers on the pulse of each neighbourhood in the city and can help buyers and sellers make localized, strategic, data-informed decisions.”

Britsh Colombia - Prices continue rising as home buyer confidence returns

Vancouver, 15 April 2023 -- With listing activity remaining below historical norms, home sales in Metro Vancouver1 have mounted a surprising comeback, rising near levels seen last spring, before eight consecutive interest rate hikes eroded borrowing power and brought home sales activity down along with it.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 2,7412 in April 2023, a 16.5% decrease from the 3,281 sales recorded in April 2022, and 15.6% below the 10-year seasonal average (3,249).

"The fact we are seeing prices rising and sales rebounding this spring tells us home buyers are returning with confidence after a challenging year for our market, with mortgage rates roughly doubling. The latest MLS HPI® data show home prices have increased about 5% year-to-date, which already outpaces our forecast of one to 2% by year-end. The year is far from over, however, and it remains to be seen if these price increases will be sustained into 2024."

There were 4,307 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in April 2023. This represents a 29.7% decrease compared to the 6,128 homes listed in April 2022, and was 22% below the 10-year seasonal average (5,525).

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,790, a 4.2% decrease compared to April 2022 (9,176), and 20.9% below the 10-year seasonal average (11,117).

Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12% for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20% over several months.

“When we released our market forecast in January, we were one of the only organizations taking the contrarian view that prices were likely to appreciate in 2023,” Lis said.

“And what we’re seeing unfold so far this year is consistent with our prediction that near record-low inventory levels would create competitive conditions where almost any resurgence in demand would translate to price escalation, despite the elevated borrowing cost environment. At the crux of it, the issue remains a matter of far too little resale supply available relative to the pool of active buyers in our market.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,170,700. This represents a 7.4% decrease over April 2022 and a 2.3% increase compared to March 2023.

Sales of detached homes in April 2023 reached 808, a 16.3% decrease from the 965 detached sales recorded in April 2022. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,915,800. This represents an 8.8% decrease from April 2022 and a 2.9% increase compared to March 2023. 

Attached home sales in April 2023 totalled 500, a 13.5% decrease compared to the 578 sales in April 2022. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $1,078,400. This represents a 6.1% decrease from April 2022 and a 2.1% increase compared to March 2023.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,413 in April 2023, a 16.5% decrease compared to the 1,693 sales in April 2022. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $752,300. This represents a 3.1% decrease from April 2022 and a two% increase compared to March 2023.

Alberta - Prices reach new record high

Calgary, May 1, 2023 - Persistent sellers’ market conditions placed further upward pressure on home prices in April. After four months of persistent gains, the total unadjusted benchmark price reached $550,800, nearly two% higher than last month and a new monthly record high for the city. 

“While sales activity is performing as expected, the steeper pullback in new listings has ensured that supply levels remain low,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “The limited supply choice is causing more buyers to place offers above the list price, contributing to the stronger than expected gains in home prices.”

In April, sales reached 2,690 units compared to the 3,133 new listings. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 86%, inventories declined by 34% compared to last year and are over 45% below long-term averages for April.

While sales have eased by 21% compared to last year, the steep decline in supply has caused the months of supply to ease to just over one month. This reflects tighter market conditions than earlier in the year and compared to conditions reported last April. 

Detached - New listings have eased across all price ranges in the detached market, with the most significant declines occurring for homes priced below $700,000. The decline in new listings far outpaced the pullback in sales, causing the sale-to-new listings ratio to rise to 88% and the months of supply to fall to just over one month, tighter than both last year and last month. 

The persistently tight market conditions have contributed to further price growth. In April, the detached benchmark price reached a new record high at $661,900. Every district except the City Centre reported a new record high price in April. The City Centre is also the only district that reported over two months of supply. With a year-over-year gain of 6%, the most affordable East district reported the largest price gain. 

Semi-Detached - With 234 sales and 264 new listings in April, the sales-to-new listings ratio jumped to 89%. This caused further declines in inventory levels, which are at the lowest April level seen since 2007. As conditions are tighter than last year, it is not a surprise to see further price growth.

The unadjusted benchmark price in April reached and new record high at $593,200, reflecting a two% gain over last month’s and last year’s prices. While all districts posted a new record high price this month, the strongest gains occurred in the most affordable North East and East districts. 

Row - Row properties faced the tightest market conditions in April, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 95% and months of supply under one month. Row sales have eased over last April’s record high, but with 416 sales, activity is still far stronger than long-term trends. Relative affordability has supported the strong demand in this sector. However, the persistently tight market conditions have placed significant pressure on home prices.

After four consecutive monthly gains, the benchmark price reached a new record high of $387,400, over seven% higher than last year. Like other areas, the steepest price growth occurred in the most affordable districts of the North East, East and South.

Apartment Condominium - Thanks to a boost in new listings in April, the apartment condominium sector was the only sector to see sales activity rise over last year’s levels. With 953 new listings and 734 sales, inventories did trend up over the previous month but remained below the levels reported last year at this time. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 77% and a month of supply of 1.5, conditions are not as tight as other property types in the city. However, this still reflects sellers’ market conditions and has been driving up prices. 

As of April, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $299,400, a significant gain over the $277,600 reported at the start of the year and over 10% higher than last April. Following four months of consecutive gains, prices are now just shy of the previous high reported in 2014. While price gains across all districts have not resulted in a new city-wide record, the North, North West and South East reported new highs in April.